Saturday, September 29, 2007

Guest Column: Against The Spread Picks-Week 4 by William Jones

Last week we went 2-1 in the NFL and we're looking for a perfect week to get us on the positive side for good!

Game 1 - Green Bay -1 @ Minnesota - Let me just say I LOVE the Minnesota defense. Now, let me add one thing...I REALLY LOVE the Green Bay defense! If you look at this game, it's about the QB's. You have Brett Favre, The Bayou Legend himself vs. Kelly Holcomb. All thing being equal, it's a no-brainer. Adrian Peterson can clear a spot on the mantle for his Rookie of the Year award now, but stacking the line against him will only get the Vikes so far. Rainman could be the Packers Defensive Coordinator on this one...Stack against the run and let your top quality cover men lock down the receivers. Packers D will have to record at least 3 sacks and 2 picks this week.... AND they get the win, so we'll give up the measly 1 point and take the Pack.

Game 2 - Jets -3.5 @ Buffalo - The Bills have been a tough home team in years past and the Jets look like a far different team from last year's playoff contenders but this game is all about injuries. The Bills have been annihilated with at least 7 starters expected to sit this one out. They have rookie Trent Edwards starting at QB. It took the Jets 3 games to get a sack; look for them to add 2 or more in this game and win easily. The difference will be Special Teams and Defensive touchdowns. Take the Jets and give up the always dangerous 3.5 points.

And the UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK!!! - Chicago -3 @ Detroit - Keeping with the theme of injuries, let's take a look at the real story at Chicago. This Rex Grossman thing is a band-aid on an amputation since Griese obviously has no business starting anyway (if he did, he would've beaten out Rex in training camp.) Chicago will lose and lose badly this weekend because of injuries at each level of their defense....Tommy Harris (Defensive Line), Lance Briggs (Linebacker) and Nathan Vasher(Defensive Back). When each tier of your defense is compromised, I have no idea how you can win. Griese manages the game but just as they expected Rex not to LOSE games, I can't expect Brian to WIN games for them. Detroit's high flying offense keeps the second stringers on defense running, causing the Bears to run out of gas in the fourth. Take the Lions and the 3 points...they win outright!

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