Saturday, September 15, 2007

Guest Column: Against the Spread Picks- Week 2 by William Jones

Another new feature here at Pigskins & Pucks:

Stats Guru William Jones will give advice each week on whom you should place your hard earned money on and which matchups to shy away from.

He will utilize his Beta Equalization System which will not only take into account a team's record, but also all applicable trends and history against their opponents. If you believe that you've discovered a new angle regarding beating the odds, chances are he has already thought of it.

Seattle (-3) at Arizona- The Cards let that game slip away last week and I have to believe they are still smarting. The short week will not help. The Seattle D showed up strong last week, shutting down a Tampa Bay team that actually got out to a nice offensive start in the first half. The Seahawks made solid adjustments at the half, knocking Garcia and Cadillac out of the game. Arizona's O-Line is beat up after the Monday night game and they aren't that good to begin with! The Card WR's were a non-factor - was it the defensive coverage of the Mighty 49'ers (Clements can't cover everyone) or is there something wrong with QB Matt Leinart? I'm thinking the Seahawks are as loaded as they were the past two years but this time everyone is as healthy as possible. This one won't be close so give up the points and pick Seattle.

NYG (-1.5) vs. Green Bay - The Pack visits NJ to play NY, having beaten PHI. The Giants are nowhere the defensive team the Eagles are, so look for Favre (in his last go-round in the NFL) to leave us awestruck. The Giants hung 35 points on Dallas's D last week when Terence Newman was out along with Greg Ellis. The Jints will face, in my opinion, one of the top Defenses in the Packers this week; With or without Eli, I can see Coughlin's face on the side of a milk carton as we speak after this blow out. New York has too many holes to fill. The only thing that keeps this close would be the Mercy Rule. Packers +1.5.

New England (-3.5) vs. San Diego - Wish I were a betting man! (Ironic, isn't it?) NE beat a Jets team that is still coming together. They had bogus tape to nail the coffin shut...not this week! SD beat a formidable Bears defense without LT getting a ton of yards. With the aging NE linebackers and patchwork secondary, I see this getting ugly fast with SD looking to assert themselves as the most physical team in the AFC, including the Ravens. NE can't bring the heat on defense like they could 2 or 3 years ago. I'm going with SD +3.5.

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