Against the Spread Picks- Week 11

Bill Jones is a little swamped this week, so I'll be covering him with the picks. For those of you who depend on Bill's advice each week, well...you're stuck with me. I'll try not to let you down.

Green Bay -9 1/2 over Carolina- This is some roll that Brett Favre and the boys are on, eh? Now they get the Panthers at Lambeau Field on Sunday. Carolina hasn't been awful on defense this year, giving up only 215 yards per game through the air. But they are surrendering 113 yards and a touchdown per game on the ground. Look for the Packers to establish the run early, for Brett to throw a touchdown or two and for the stifling Green Bay defense to shut down whoever gets the nod in Carolina's revolving door quarterback situation.

New England -16 over Buffalo- How can we endorse a 16 point spread in the NFL? Easily...it's the Pats after all. They have run roughshod over just about everyone and the Bills will be no different. The Belichick Crew have had an extra week off to rest their injuries and come up with new ways to get the ball in the endzone. This week, it might be Steve Grogan coming out of retirement to throw a lineman-eligible touchdown to John Hannah. Boy, won't Mike Vrabel be steamed about that one?


San Diego +3 over Jacksonville- Jacksonville's formerly tough defense gives up 261 ypg through the air. While Phillip Rivers has been no one's idea of a Pro Bowl quarterback this season, he's proven he can get the ball to Antonio Gates, whom the Jaguars have no answer for. Week 9's meltdown against the Vikings notwithstanding, the Chargers defense has been very active the past three weeks, producing 4 sacks and 10 interceptions. Look for them to batter Quinn Gray (or David Garrard...it doesn't matter) and to bottle up Jones-Drew and Taylor.


Take it to the Bank pick:

Pittsburgh -9 1/2 over New York Jets- You could probably make this a 19 1/2 point spread and it would make no difference. Pittsburgh has been simply dominant on the defensive side of the ball this season except for a couple of out of character games. Meanwhile, the Jets offense has an extreme inability to run the football. The passing offense doesn't exactly keep opposing defensive coordinators up at night either. Pittsburgh will dominate with their own running game and a few Ben Roethlisberger touchdowns thrown in for good measure.

Start/Sit: Week 11

Quarterbacks:

Start- Kurt Warner- Warner is one of those boom or bust players that sometimes are worth taking a chance on. He threw for 3 touchdowns last week and seems to be getting into a rhythm with the offense. Of course, he's always one sack away from an injury, but he's benefited from improved play by the defense and no longer feels like he has to win the game by himself. It doesn't hurt that he's playing the Bengals, whom your grandmother could throw on for 180 yards (at least). Forecast: 225 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception.

Sit- Carson Palmer- Palmer just hasn't looked like himself this year. Much of his trouble can be attributed to an offensive line that has been decimated by injuries. There is cause for hope for him, though, with the return of Chris Henry. I just think you might have a better option this week. Forecast: 225 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 sacks


Running Back:

Start- Willis McGahee- Every time this column has predicted a big game for McGahee, he has inevitably come up short. We're hoping this time might be the charm. Baltimore is fighting for it's season right now, has the woeful Browns defense at home and will need to establish a strong running game to compensate for it's putrid passing offense. If he can't get it done this week, he won't get it done any week. Forecast- 125 yards, 2 touchdowns

Sit- Reggie Bush- Bush has been banged up recently and is showing the effects of being the main man in the backfield for the Saints, a role which he has not convinced many people that he is suitable for. He left last week's game with an injury and may not be 100% for this contest. Also, look for the Saints to start expanding the roles of Pierre Thomas and Aaron Stecker to keep Bush fresh. All this adds up to a sub-par day for Reggie. Forecast- 65 yards, 1 touchdown


Wide Receiver:

Start- Santonio Holmes- Holmes has caught 6 receptions in a game twice this season and now faces a tasty matchup against the woeful Jets. Pittsburgh is annoyed with a perceived lack of respect (with the rest of the league in love with the Patriots). Look for them to make a statement with this game. Expect Holmes to be a big part of that. Forecast- 7 receptions, 110 yards, 1 touchdown

Sit- Plaxico Burress- Burress has not been healthy for nearly the whole season, but at least had been able to play through the pain. However, his ankle appears to be getting worse and it is now starting to affect his game. He came up small last week against Dallas and, with his inability to push off and leap like he normally would, he will be invisible again versus Detroit. I know it's tough to swallow, but go with a healthier option on your roster. Forecast- 3 receptions, 40 yards.


Tight End:

Start- Owen Daniels- One would think that Daniels would've benefited the most from Andre Johnson's injury, but the opposite has been true. Defenses have focused on him and his numbers have suffered. Johnson returns this week and Daniels ought to be able to shake free to make some key catches across the middle. He's a bit of a forgotten man in Fantasy circles and may even be available on your waiver wire. Forecast- 5 receptions, 45 yards, 1 touchdown

Sit- Vernon Davis- It's gotten tough to recommend any 49er this year, but Davis has been singled out a couple of times because his potential. However, San Francisco's problems appear to simply be getting worse. Davis is being forced to stay in and block due to the 49er's porous offensive line, a task for which he is not suited and which frustrates him greatly. You really don't want any part of this trainwreck. Forecast- 3 receptions, 30 yards


Defense:

Start- Dallas- The Cowboys are coming off a big win against the Giants and are looking to maintain their momentum against another division foe. They are also only giving up 87 yards per game against the rush, meaning it could be a long day for Clinton Portis. They will dare young Jason Campbell to beat them through the air. Campbell is getting better, but he will not be able to handle the variety of blitzes that Wade Phillips will throw at him. Forecast- 3 sacks, 2 interceptions

Sit- Jacksonville- Jacksonville has just not been the same rapacious defense they've been in past seasons. Part of the problem has been an ineffective offense which has kept the D on field for too much of the season. They are giving 102 yards on the ground per game, not a terrible number. However, LT comes to town this week and the Charger's gameplan will be to run him all day long and the Jaguars will not be able to keep up. Forecast- 1 sack, 1 interception.

Vinatieri replaced by an alien...and other thoughts from Week 10

What a weird game Sunday night....Who would've possibly imagined that Peyton Manning would throw six interceptions, Adam Vinatieri would miss two field goals and the Colts STILL had a chance to win?

Vinatieri, I cannot fathom. Here is one of the greatest clutch kickers in the history of the league and he blows THAT chip-shot? Clearly, he was kidnapped prior to the game and an extra-terrestrial was put out in his place. Bad field or not, it was a shame because of how desperately the Colts battled to get back into that game. However, the injuries are mounting on both sides of the ball now with Dwight Freeney expected to miss several weeks. Still, I wouldn't worry about a complete Indianapolis free-fall about to occur, with games coming up against Atlanta, Oakland and Houston. Let's face it: If they lose to those teams, even with their current injury woes, they won't deserve a chance to defend their title.

On to the other thoughts from the week:

- Here's a question about the Cardinals-Lions game: Since he's so close with both Kurt Warner and Jon Kitna, which QB did God want to win? Obviously Warner.

- Speaking of Grocery Boy, it was nice to see him finally realize that Larry Fitzgerald can be thrown to in the Red Zone. You may recall I took him to task for this a couple of weeks ago. Too bad it took Anquan Boldin being majorly hobbled with a bad hip for Kurt to look elsewhere.

- Fine, I'll be the one to say it: Brett Favre for MVP. I know the entire football world is on the Tom Brady bandwagon, but I say this: There is no one player more important to his team than Favre is to the Packers. Without his play, the Packers are a .500 squad at best. Isn't this really the definition of Most Valuable Player? The Patriots would still be a good squad without Brady at the helm. Not anywhere near as good as they are now, but good enough to compete.

-Another Favre-like thought: I've heard many people say that Jay Cutler reminds them of a young Favre. I say, if you're going to give anyone with that honor, you have to give it to Big Ben Roethlisberger. Tough as nails, scrambles well when he needs to, competes until the final whistle and always gives his team a chance to win with his arm. Sounds like Brett to me.

-Was that an Alge Crumpler sighting this past weekend? Great gumdrops, it was!

- Kind of a heartbreaking moment to see AP get injured after the amazing rookie campaign he's had so far. I'm glad it doesn't look like it will end his season. But I have one question: Did Peterson not being able to run the ball somehow contribute to the decline of Minnesota's ability to stop other teams from rushing against them? What the Sam Hill happened to the league's second best rushing defense? Ryan Grant galloped all day like a modern Red Grange against them.

- When will Brian Westbrook get the honor he deserves as being one of the top 5 running backs in the game right now? He has 54 receptions out of the backfield, people...to say nothing about 700 yards rushing and 9 total touchdowns. The Eagles are an impotent offense when he's not in the lineup. How does he keep getting ignored? He'd be #2 in my MVP argument behind Favre.

-The Giants looked much tougher against the Dolphins in London. I guess that's what happens when you go up against a team that has a quarterback named Cleo Lemon (I still can't stop laughing when I say his name. Do you realize he throws to a TE named Justin PEELLE? "Lemon...to Peelle...Espresso! I mean, touchdown!")

- How happy is Rex Grossman right now?

No party for Marty

Martin Brodeur, arguably the finest goalie to ever play hockey, had a chance to win his 500th game Saturday night, an incredible feat that will be feted by the hockey community when it does happen (and rightfully so).

However, no team wants to make history as being the losing side in such an historic game and the New York Islanders were no exception.

The Islanders played a tight, focused contest (achieving the remarkable accomplishment of not recording ANY penalties) and held off the Devils 2-1. Miroslav Satan recorded his third straight game winning goal. He's as hot as the sun right now.

After the game, Brodeur exhibited a bad case of Sour Grapes, claiming "I don't think they beat us. Look at the two goals they got." Ok, Marty....here's a way to look at "the two goals they got": No matter how they happened, they both ended up in the net behind you....case closed...end of story. Funny how he didn't mention that the Devils lone goal was accidentally knocked into the net by Islanders defenseman Brendan Witt.

Clearly, Brodeur was agitated and disappointed that he didn't reach his milestone on this particular night, but making such statements is beneath him. He knows better than anyone that all goals count the same, whether they were created by a beautiful, Bobby Orr-like, End to End rush or they barely trickle across the plane of the goalmouth. Matteau's series winning goal that clinched the game for the Rangers in 1994 against Brodeur was no beauty, either. But, boy, did it ever count.

Next time, Marty, try closing your mouth (as well as your legs) and you'll let fewer goals in...and fewer stupid remarks out.

Guest Column- Against The Spread picks Week 10 by William Jones

Upset Special
Arizona (-1) vs. Detroit - How this is nearly a "pick 'em" is beyond me. Detroit coming off 3 straight wins while Arizona has the exact opposite trend losing 3 in a row (including last week after a bye.) Both teams give up a ton of passing yards but the Lions are 17 turnovers better and that is huge underdog margin. Look for this to be a high scoring affair with the Lions coming out ahead. Pick - Detroit +1.

Buffalo (-3) vs. Miami - Again, this is nuts. Buffalo coming off 3 straight wins vs. Miami coming off 8 losses. Despite having a bye week, Miami has found no solutions for any of ails them and with Buffalo coming to town, they won't find any this week. Losman is in a groove and Lee Evans has woken up. Add in the rookie RB Lynch and we'll have a laugher. Pick - Buffalo -3.

Only 2 plays this week. There doesn't seem to be many clear cut opportunities so we'll take what we can get and not try to force the plays.

Guest Column: College Football Picks by William Jones

Kansas State (-7.5) @ Nebraska - OK, KState totally laid an egg last week, losing to (gulp) Iowa State, but this week they are giving almost 9 fewer points to a Nebraska team which has a -14 takeaway/giveaway margin to KState's +6...that's a difference of 20 turnovers. KState usually wins by 13.5 whereas Nebbie loses by 8. While we're always a bit nervous about the old "7.5", if KState can get at least 2 turnovers, they win by two scores easily. Go with K-State -6.

East Carolina (-7) @ Marshall - Same story as above with the takeaway/giveaway margin - it's E. Carolina with a 26 turnover advantage,so we expect at least 3 turnovers going EC's way. Marshall usually loses games by 14 points and most recently lost to second place UCF by 34 points. UCF's only conference loss is to, you guessed it, first place East Carolina by 14. Our resident Vegas Insider, Pete-Diddy, believes this game is a trap, since the line should be much higher, but, then again, he also believes in UFOs. Go with EC -7.

UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK North Texas (+15.5) vs. Navy - How on earth can I pick NT, the worst team in I-A football, the team with a former (as in last year) high school coach running the program, the team I've consistently picked against and won?!?! Well, Navy is coming off the emotional, historic triple overtime win over ND. Navy is the one team who may have a more shallow defense than NT. Plus Navy runs the ball while NT has gotten quite adept at passing with Freshman QB Giovanni Vizza (remember that name...ok, don't remember that name...) gaining lots of experience this season. Navy will win the game, but for them to win by 16, it will take more of a vertical offense than they have. Take NT +15.5.

Don't forget to thank a Veteran this weekend!

Start/Sit: Week 10

Quarterback:

Start: J.P Losman- Some people consider threatening a man's job will give him the proper motivation. Whether or not it's the correct course of action to take, it certainly seems to have worked wonders with J.P. Just when it seemed as though Trent Edwards would be the future for the Bills, an injury re-opened the door for Losman and he has played well enough to keep the rookie at bay for now. Losman gets the woeful Dolphins D this week and should put his rediscovered connection with Lee Evans to good use. Forecast: 225 yards, 2 touchdowns

Sit: Kurt Warner- It's not really Kurt's fault...he's just not very reliable at this stage in his career. He was stuck in that Foodtown in Dubuque (or wherever) during what should have been some very productive years. In any case, playing against the surging Lions defense will not help him further his career this week. Unless you don't have other options, I'd steer clear of Grocery Boy. Forecast: 190 yards, 1 touchdown (to Anquan Boldin, of course), 2 interceptions, 2 sacks


Running Back:

Start: Kevin Jones- KJ has been somewhat enigmatic this season. He rushed for 105 yards and a touchdown against the Bears, but turns in only 71 yards against the Sieves, I mean The Broncos. Weird, wacky stuff, but look for him to have another good matchup in the offing here against an Arizona club that's been giving up 125 yards per game on the ground. He ought to be especially useful late in the game, eating up the clock. Forecast: 110 yards, 1 touchdown

Sit: Shaun Alexander- Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Only two years removed from an 1,800+ yard rushing season, Alexander managed 32 yards against Cleveland, a team your Aunt Delia could hit the rushing century mark against (provided that she uses one cut and hits the hole with authority). He hasn't been healthy the entire year and continues to make fantasy owners miserable who drafted him based on his name alone. Even with an enticing matchup against the 49'ers, he should be planted firmly on your bench. Forecast: 40 yards


Wide Receiver:

Start: David Patten- "The Little General" has averaged 90 receiving yards in his last two games and is proving to be a useful cog in the great New Orleans Comeback Story. He gets the winless Rams at the Superdome this week, which is understandably a good situation. Drew Brees has been on fire and will certainly take to the air, a pretty good thing for Patten, who has carved out an 11 year career for himself despite the fact he wasn't even drafted. He does another famous Patton (George S.) proud, who once remarked: " If a man does his best, what else is there?" Forecast- 5 receptions, 90 yards, 1 touchdown

Sit: Steve Smith- We really hate to keep harping on poor Steve, but his season has been a complete disaster since Jake Delhomme retreated to the bayou to heal his arm. He's trying his hardest, but he has 5 catches for a combined 33 yards over the last two games. I'll grant you that the Falcons are hardly an imposing defensive squad, but with either "Has-Been Vinny" or "Never-Was Carr" throwing the ball, any defense can look spectacular. Until he shows some signs of life, I'd say put Steve on the "Do Not Resuscitate" list. Forecast- 4 catches, 40 yards


Tight End:

Start: Donald Lee- It looks like Bubba Franks' time in Green Bay has come to an end and Lee becomes his worthy replacement. He just signed a 4 year, 12 million dollar contract extension and will be in the mood to show the Packers how grateful he is. The Packers play the Vikings this week, who can defend the run like no one's business but can be thrown on all day long. Even though Brett Favre spreads the ball around, Lee will still get his share and be useful. Forecast- 4 receptions, 60 yards

Sit: Vernon Davis- "Super Freak" has been on a nice little run the past two weeks, averaging 74 yards per game to go with 6 catches. However, the 49'ers play Seattle at Qwest Field this Monday night, which is where the run will end. It's not so much that the Seahawks have linebackers who can cover Davis. It's really more an issue of just how many sacks and interceptions they will force QB Alex Smith into. Forecast: 3 receptions, 40 yards


Defense:

Start: Oakland- The Raiders have been pretty average when it comes to overall defense this year, but they are particularly good at garnering interceptions. Enter Brian Griese, who is pretty good at throwing them. It really shouldn't be much of a stretch to figure out what should happen here. With defenses like Tampa Bay on a bye week, Oakland makes for a nice fill in. Forecast- 3 sacks, 3 interceptions, 1 touchdown

Sit: Baltimore- Can I possibly be suggesting sitting the Mighty Ravens at home? If you watched Monday Night's game against the Steelers, you'd know why. It's not that I think the Ravens are bad. It's just that I think that, with both starting cornerbacks injured, they are ripe to be had by a desperate Bengals team who will throwing the ball like it's going out of style. Forecast- 2 sacks